Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.004150 0.004555 0.004990 0.005492 0.006060 0.006682 0.007418
2025-09-14 0.003571 0.004151 0.004821 0.005657 0.006681 0.007904 0.009494
2025-09-21 0.003121 0.003762 0.004536 0.005552 0.006866 0.008532 0.010843
2025-09-28 0.002795 0.003464 0.004302 0.005446 0.006994 0.009054 0.012073
2025-10-05 0.002578 0.003273 0.004171 0.005440 0.007225 0.009709 0.013542
2025-10-12 0.002440 0.003167 0.004133 0.005542 0.007599 0.010587 0.015434
2025-10-19 0.002267 0.002995 0.003986 0.005471 0.007709 0.011077 0.016787
2025-10-26 0.002134 0.002867 0.003886 0.005452 0.007883 0.011674 0.018379
2025-11-02 0.001999 0.002725 0.003754 0.005370 0.007946 0.012091 0.019715
2025-11-09 0.001913 0.002645 0.003704 0.005405 0.008192 0.012826 0.021711
2025-11-16 0.001813 0.002539 0.003605 0.005353 0.008289 0.013312 0.023313
2025-11-23 0.001699 0.002405 0.003457 0.005209 0.008212 0.013484 0.024325
2025-11-30 0.001622 0.002325 0.003389 0.005198 0.008377 0.014132 0.026455
2025-12-07 0.001587 0.002307 0.003419 0.005354 0.008855 0.015426 0.030201
2025-12-14 0.001501 0.002205 0.003307 0.005256 0.008859 0.015806 0.032008
2025-12-21 0.001423 0.002110 0.003199 0.005158 0.008851 0.016157 0.033808
2025-12-28 0.001369 0.002051 0.003147 0.005151 0.009016 0.016882 0.036656
2026-01-04 0.001337 0.002026 0.003151 0.005247 0.009388 0.018092 0.040991
2026-01-11 0.001280 0.001955 0.003071 0.005181 0.009429 0.018581 0.043534
2026-01-18 0.001234 0.001902 0.003019 0.005163 0.009566 0.019303 0.046889
2026-01-25 0.001182 0.001836 0.002939 0.005086 0.009570 0.019716 0.049447
2026-02-01 0.001151 0.001803 0.002918 0.005119 0.009812 0.020730 0.054081
2026-02-08 0.001110 0.001751 0.002857 0.005071 0.009872 0.021304 0.057480